As harvest picks up pace, wheat flour prices fall by ₹5-7 per kg, offering relief to consumers

By Vijay C. Roy, Suneera Tandon

The fresh arrival of wheat from key producing states—Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat—is beginning to ease the pressure on household budgets, with wheat flour (atta) prices declining sharply by ₹5-7 per kg over the past month.

The softening of prices, as per industry people, could not have come at a better time as policymakers intensify efforts to rein in food inflation.

Unbranded atta has seen the most visible price decline, while several branded atta players have reduced prices by ₹1.5- ₹5 per kg. However, distributors say it may take a few more weeks for these cuts to fully reflect on retail shelves.

Wholesale atta prices have also corrected significantly, falling to ₹2,900- ₹3,000 per quintal in Delhi from ₹3,600- ₹3,700 a month ago. 

Navneet Chitlangia, president of the Roller Flour Millers’ Federation of India (RFMFI), attributed the price decline to the robust pace of harvesting. “The benefits of the new crop are beginning to flow to consumers. We expect the trend to continue as arrivals strengthen further,” he said.

The government procurement has gathered momentum. Between 15 March, when procurement began, and 24 April, government agencies had purchased over 19.85 million tonnes (mt) of wheat, up 46% from 13.85 mt procured during the same period last year. For the 2025-26 marketing season, the government is targeting a wheat procurement of 31.2mt, compared to 26.6mt bought in 2024-25.

According to the agriculture ministry, wheat production during the 2024-25 rabi season is estimated to reach a record 115.43mt, surpassing the 113.29mt harvested last year. Experts attribute the bumper harvest to conducive weather conditions and the absence of major crop-damaging events this season.

In the Delhi wholesale market, wheat is currently trading between ₹2,600 and ₹2,700 per quintal, compared to ₹3,300 a month ago—a substantial correction that analysts believe will provide vital relief to the broader inflation outlook.

Retail inflation slowed to 3.34% in March, with food inflation easing sharply to 2.69% year-on-year from 3.75% in February. Economists see the ongoing wheat harvest and strong procurement efforts as key factors that could further cool prices in the coming months.

“With a bumper wheat crop expected and robust procurement, we should see a stable-to-softening trend in food inflation. Wheat prices have a direct impact on staples like flour, bread, and biscuits,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda.

This year’s wheat harvest is turning out to be a crucial turning point after months of volatility. Wheat prices had started climbing after mid-December 2024 due to dwindling supplies and strong demand from flour mills. By early February, wheat prices had hit a record high, prompting the government to intervene through the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS) and regulatory measures such as stock limits on traders and millers.

However, the supply situation only began easing after new crop arrivals began mid-March.

Under OMSS, the Food Corporation of India (FCI) offloaded 3mt of wheat starting mid-December in FY25, compared to a record 10mt sold to bulk buyers in FY24. Wheat was offered at ₹2,325 per quintal, slightly above the official minimum support price (MSP) of ₹2,275 for the 2024-25 marketing year.

Despite these interventions, the real relief has come only now with the actual arrival of fresh supplies. Retailers confirm that the fall in prices is currently more pronounced for unbranded atta and chakki atta sold in bulk (10kg or 50kg bags) compared with branded packaged atta.

“It takes time for branded players to recalibrate their shelf prices even if procurement costs fall. So far, we haven’t seen major changes at the retail level,” said Dhairyashil Patil, president, All India Consumer Products Distributors’ Federation.

Branded wheat flour accounts for only 5-8% of India’s 45-50mt annual atta market, meaning that most consumers are likely to benefit relatively faster through loose and unbranded flour purchases.

Queries sent to major branded players like ITC Ltd and Adani Agri Business Ltd (formerly Adani Wilmar) remained unanswered.

Industry watchers caution that products made from wheat, such as bread and biscuits, may not immediately see price cuts. “The prices of secondary products like bread and biscuits won’t necessarily come down in perfect sync with wheat prices,” Sabnavis added, pointing to processing and packaging costs that remain elevated.

This article has been republished from The Livemint.